The Cinematique’s final 2018 Oscar predictions

Sunday night / Monday morning sees Oscar celebrate its 90th birthday as the latest Academy Awards ceremony take place in Los Angeles.

Will the Shape of Water swim its way to victory? Does Dunkirk have what it takes to swoop in and take the gold or can Get Out make things tense when Best Picture is announced? And will ‘Sir’ Gary Oldman be celebrating success for his portrayal of Churchill? Ohhhhh yes!

Once again, here are the Cinematique’s final predictions for the 2018 Oscars….

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BEST PICTURE

CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
DARKEST HOUR
DUNKIRK
GET OUT
LADY BIRD
PHANTOM THREAD
THE POST
THE SHAPE OF WATER
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI

WILL WIN?THE SHAPE OF WATER – It’s a very close call but Shape has the momentum in terms of its beautiful story and stunning visuals though Dunkirk, Get Out and Three Billboards could still sneak it. Oodle, oodle, oodle….

SHOULD WIN?THREE BILLBOARDS or GET OUT – The former performed well with the Globes, SAG and BAFTA yet its Best Director snub was costly. The latter has been a universal hit that could appeal to voters owing to its issues on race and class.

IGNORED?WONDER – Bold call but the heartwarming drama was one of my favourite films of 2017 and was never really taken seriously despite its themes of love and friendship.

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BEST DIRECTOR

Paul Thomas Anderson, PHANTOM THREAD
Greta Gerwig, LADY BIRD
Christopher Nolan, DUNKIRK
Jordan Peele, GET OUT
Guillermo del Toro, THE SHAPE OF WATER

WILL WIN?GUILLERMO DEL TORO – The Mexican filmmaker has eased his way to several key awards although his film could still yet miss out on winning the big one.

SHOULD WIN?CHRISTOPHER NOLAN – It’s a relief to see him finally nominated in this category plus the Academy may want to make amends for snubbing his work on The Dark Knight and Inception.

IGNORED?MARTIN MCDONAGH – The Irish filmmaker was a surprise snub for a film that has done well with the guilds though an Original Screenplay win would be deserving.

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BEST ACTOR

Timothee Chalamet, CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
Daniel Day-Lewis, PHANTOM THREAD
Daniel Kaluuya, GET OUT
Gary Oldman, DARKEST HOUR
Denzel Washington, ROMAN J. ISRAEL, ESQ.

WILL WIN?GARY OLDMAN – He’s been smashing the awards guilds this year without much threat and is well deserving of the win for his brilliant portrayal of Winston Churchill.

SHOULD WIN?GARY OLDMAN – The trailer effectively guaranteed him the win with so many memorable moments in the film to choose from.

IGNORED?JAKE GYLLENHAAL – His powerful role as a victim of the Boston Marathon bombing in Stronger deserved more awards love and once again leaves him without a nomination since 2006.

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BEST ACTRESS

Sally Hawkins, THE SHAPE OF WATER
Frances McDormand, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
Margot Robbie, I, TONYA
Saoirse Ronan, LADY BIRD
Meryl Streep, THE POST

WILL WIN?FRANCES MCDORMAND – Key wins at the Globes, SAG and BAFTA have all but assured her of a second Oscar triumph for such a devastating and memorable performance.

SHOULD WIN?SALLY HAWKINS – Her lovely performance didn’t land enough key awards though hopefully she’ll be competing in this category again in the future.

IGNORED?JESSICA CHASTAIN – Despite Molly’s Game being a commercial hit, Jessica (once again) missed out on a nod though I’m hopeful that her time will come soon!

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Willem Dafoe, THE FLORIDA PROJECT
Woody Harrelson, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
Richard Jenkins, THE SHAPE OF WATER
Christopher Plummer, ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD
Sam Rockwell, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI

WILL WIN?SAM ROCKWELL – After many years of consistent work, he now looks a sure thing to land the Oscar for his diverse performance following his recent BAFTA success.

SHOULD WIN?SAM ROCKWELL – Given how frustrating this category has been in the last two years (Rylance and Ali over Stallone and Patel), it’s a relief to see a terrific performance deserve this award.

IGNORED?MICHAEL SHANNON – A terrifying performance from one of Hollywood’s under-appreciated actors though the Academy clearly preferred Richard Jenkins’s more subtle turn.

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Mary J. Blige, MUDBOUND
Allison Janney, I, TONYA
Lesley Manville, PHANTOM THREAD
Laurie Metcalf, LADY BIRD
Octavia Spencer, THE SHAPE OF WATER

WILL WIN?ALLISON JANNEY – The West Wing actress has been dominant over the past couple of months and should have enough momentum to take home gold for her fierce portrayal of Tonya Harding’s bullying mum.

SHOULD WIN?ALLISON JANNEY – Her recent win at BAFTA has cemented her chances of winning gold thus making her the fifth actress from The Help to take home an Oscar!

IGNORED?HONG CHAU – Though she scored well with key award groups, her snub means that it’s been over ten years since an Asian actor/actress was nominated by the Academy!

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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

THE BIG SICK, Kumail Nanjiani & Emily V. Gordon
GET OUT, Jordan Peele
LADY BIRD, Greta Gerwig
THE SHAPE OF WATER, Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI, Martin McDonagh

WILL WIN?THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI – A win would be deserving for McDonagh as well as make amends for his snub in Best Director!

SHOULD WIN?GET OUT – Jordan Peele’s masterful script could still sneak this category which would certainly strengthen its Best Picture hopes.

IGNORED?THE POST – The script was exceptional yet the political biopic only managed nods for Best Picture and Best Actress.

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BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

CALL ME BY YOUR NAME, James Ivory
THE DISASTER ARTIST, Scott Neustadfter & Michael H. Weber
LOGAN, Scott Frank, James Mangold & Michael Green
MOLLY’S GAME, Aaron Sorkin
MUDBOUND, Virgil Williams & Dee Rees

WILL WIN?CALL ME BY YOUR NAME – The romantic drama has performed well in this category elsewhere and should guarantee veteran writer James Ivory another gong.

SHOULD WIN?MOLLY’S GAME – Aaron Sorkin’s crisp script was well received but the West Wing and Newsroom creator already has a win to his name.

IGNORED?WONDER – The emotional drama was a big hit with audiences (including myself) yet its lovely screenplay was disappointingly overlooked.

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BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

BEAUTY AND THE BEAST
BLADE RUNNER 2049
DARKEST HOUR
DUNKIRK
THE SHAPE OF WATER

WILL WIN?THE SHAPE OF WATER

SHOULD WIN?BEAUTY AND THE BEAST

IGNORED?MURDER ON THE ORIENT EXPRESS

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BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

BLADE RUNNER 2049, Roger Deakins
DARKEST HOUR, Bruno Delbonnel
DUNKIRK, Hoyte van Hoytema
MUDBOUND, Rachel Morrison
THE SHAPE OF WATER, Dan Lausten

WILL WIN?BLADE RUNNER 2049

SHOULD WIN?DUNKIRK

IGNORED?THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI

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BEST COSTUME DESIGN

BEAUTY AND THE BEAST, Jacqueline Durran
DARKEST HOUR, Jacqueline Durran
PHANTOM THREAD, Mark Bridges
THE SHAPE OF WATER, Luis Sequeira
VICTORIA & ABDUL, Consolata Boyle

WILL WIN?PHANTOM THREAD

SHOULD WIN?BEAUTY AND THE BEAST

IGNORED?MURDER ON THE ORIENT EXPRESS

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BEST MAKE-UP AND HAIR

DARKEST HOUR
VICTORIA & ABDUL
WONDER

WILL WIN?DARKEST HOUR

SHOULD WIN?WONDER

IGNORED?I, TONYA

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BEST EDITING

BABY DRIVER
DUNKIRK
I, TONYA
THE SHAPE OF WATER
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI

WILL WIN?DUNKIRK

SHOULD WIN?DUNKIRK

IGNORED?GET OUT

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BEST SOUND EDITING

BABY DRIVER
BLADE RUNNER 2049
DUNKIRK
THE SHAPE OF WATER
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI

WILL WIN?DUNKIRK

SHOULD WIN?DUNKIRK

IGNORED?I, TONYA

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BEST SOUND MIXING

BABY DRIVER
BLADE RUNNER 2049
DUNKIRK
THE SHAPE OF WATER
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI

WILL WIN?DUNKIRK

SHOULD WIN?DUNKIRK

IGNORED?BEAUTY AND THE BEAST

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BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

BLADE RUNNER 2049
GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 2
KONG: SKULL ISLAND
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI
WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES

WILL WIN?BLADE RUNNER 2049

SHOULD WIN?WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES

IGNORED?THE SHAPE OF WATER

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BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

DUNKIRK, Hans Zimmer
PHANTOM THREAD, Johnny Greenwood
THE SHAPE OF WATER, Alexandre Desplat
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI, John Williams
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI, Carter Burwell

WILL WIN?THE SHAPE OF WATER

SHOULD WIN?THE SHAPE OF WATER

IGNORED?DARKEST HOUR

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BEST ORIGINAL SONG

CALL ME BY YOUR NAME, “Mystery of Love”
COCO, “Remember Me”
THE GREATEST SHOWMAN, “This is Me”
MARSHALL, “Stand Up for Something”
MUDBOUND, “Mighty River”

WILL WIN?THE GREATEST SHOWMAN (“This is Me”)

SHOULD WIN?THE GREATEST SHOWMAN (“This is Me”)

IGNORED? DETROIT – “It Ain’t Fair”

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BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

THE BOSS BABY
THE BREADWINNER
COCO
FERDINAND
LOVING VINCENT

WILL WIN?COCO – Its strong reception with audiences and critics has helped it cruise to victory and allow it to follow in the footsteps of Monsters Inc, Wall-E, Up and Toy Story 3.

SHOULD WIN?COCO – Another year, another success for Pixar. Nothing else to say!

IGNORED?THE LEGO BATMAN MOVIE – This seemed inevitable given The LEGO Movie’s snub in 2015 but it still hurts to see this follow-up ignored. Batman would not approve!

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