The Cinematique’s final 2019 Oscar Predictions

It’s safe to say that this Oscar season has probably been the roughest yet. Amid all the controversy surrounding certain films, smear campaigns and the upcoming ceremony, there’s also been plenty of surprises with various films performing well at the key awards guilds.

Personally, the best part has been the remarkable success of Golden Globe, SAG and BAFTA-winner Bohemian Rhapsody which overcame venomous comments and reviews from its haters to become one of the unlikely contenders of 2019. By doing so, it also proved that the critics don’t always get it right and that us film fans can enjoy having the last laugh now and again….

But with a dark cloud hanging over this year’s Oscars, it’s now time for your webmaster to make his final predictions for the films and stars who will be taking home gold statues.

Will The Favourite be favoured by Academy members? Does Black Panther have what it takes to roar to victory? Will Rami Malek foot-stomp his way towards a Best Actor gong? And can Roma make history as the first Netflix film to win Best Picture?

Below are my picks for Sunday barring a few categories including Best Foreign Language Film, Best Documentary and Best Animated Short.


BEST PICTURE

BLACK PANTHER
BLACKKKLANSMAN
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
THE FAVOURITE
GREEN BOOK
ROMA
A STAR IS BORN
VICE

WILL WIN?ROMA – The acclaimed Mexican drama gained crucial momentum with its BAFTA triumph and will be seen as an important winner given the political theme that will no doubt annoy President Trump.

SHOULD WIN?GREEN BOOK – Despite some controversy over its historical inaccuracies, the heartwarming biopic was a big hit with audiences and may yet push the film towards a shock victory.

IGNORED?AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR – Though Black Panther’s nomination was a remarkable achievement, it’s a shame that Marvel’s biggest film of 2018 failed to land a Best Picture mention.


BEST DIRECTOR

Alfonso Cuarón, ROMA
Yorgos Lanthimos, THE FAVOURITE
Spike Lee, BLACKKKLANSMAN
Adam McKay, VICE
Pawel Pawlikowski, COLD WAR

WILL WIN?ALFONSO CUARON – Key wins at the Golden Globes, DGA and BAFTAs should be enough to guarantee the Mexican director his second gong having previously won this category for Gravity.

SHOULD WIN?ALFONSO CUARON – His all-round work on the film (which included producing, writing and filming) deserves praise with Spike Lee his only other serious competition.

IGNORED?BRADLEY COOPER (A STAR IS BORN) – A big disappointment for the actor who did a terrific job with his work on the romantic drama. Hopefully another chance of a nod comes in the future.


BEST ACTOR

Christian Bale, VICE
Bradley Cooper, A STAR IS BORN
Willem Dafoe, AT ETERNITY’S GATE
Rami Malek, BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
Viggo Mortensen, GREEN BOOK

WILL WIN?RAMI MALEK – Despite BoRhap’s harsh reviews, Rami has rocked his way towards this award with key wins at the Golden Globes, SAG and BAFTAs. It’s surely all yours ‘darling’.

SHOULD WIN?RAMI MALEK – No matter how bitter the snotty critics have been about his performance, Rami’s majestic portrayal of Freddie Mercury has been universally loved by fans along with his charismatic speeches.

IGNORED?STEVE COOGAN / JOHN C. REILLY (STAN & OLLIE) – Both actors were terrific in the sadly-ignored Laurel and Hardy biopic with my slight preference being Reilly.


BEST ACTRESS

Yalitza Aparacio, ROMA
Glenn Close, THE WIFE
Olivia Colman, THE FAVOURITE
Lady Gaga, A STAR IS BORN
Melissa McCarthy, CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?

WILL WIN?GLENN CLOSE – The veteran is looking set to finally win at the sixth attempt although late pressure from Olivia Colman could well lead to another Alex Forrest meltdown.

SHOULD WIN?MELISSA MCCARTHY – Her excellent portrayal of Lee Israel deserved more accolades and proved her capabilities as a dramatic actress after the Happytime Murders debacle.

IGNORED?EMILY BLUNT (MARY POPPINS RETURNS) – Despite a delightful turn as the magical nanny, the British actress was ignored again and has still yet to be nominated by the Academy.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali, GREEN BOOK
Adam Driver, BLACKKKLANSMAN
Sam Elliott, A STAR IS BORN
Richard E. Grant, CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?
Sam Rockwell, VICE

WILL WIN?MAHERSHALA ALI – He has steamrolled his way towards a second Oscar win in three years though at least this one is way more deserving than his Moonlight performance.

SHOULD WIN?RICHARD E. GRANT – The eccentric British actor was sublime in his film and has been a huge favourite throughout awards season despite a lack of wins.

IGNORED?TIMOTHEE CHALAMET (BEAUTIFUL BOY) – The young starlet was nominated by nearly every awards group yet failed to make the cut here. He’ll at least be reassured that bigger names have suffered a similar fate including Tom Hanks, Emma Thompson and Amy Adams.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams, VICE
Marina De Tavina, ROMA
Regina King, IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
Emma Stone, THE FAVOURITE
Rachel Weisz, THE FAVOURITE

WILL WIN?REGINA KING – Despite being snubbed by SAG and the BAFTAs, King has been dominant throughout the awards circuit and should just about scrape the win.

SHOULD WIN?RACHEL WEISZ – She gained a major boost from her BAFTA triumph though being a previous winner may prevent her from another success.

IGNORED?LUCY BOYNTON (BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY) – Her lovely portrayal of Mary Austin was disappointly ignored throughout the season though the consolation of seeing her boyfriend Rami Malek win Best Actor will definitely make up for it!


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

THE FAVOURITE, Deborah Davis & Tony McNamara
FIRST REFORMED, Paul Schrader
GREEN BOOK, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie & Peter Farrelly
ROMA, Alfonso Cuarón
VICE, Adam McKay

WILL WIN?THE FAVOURITE – A tough call but the film’s recent BAFTA win puts it just ahead of rivals Green Book and Roma.

SHOULD WIN?THE FAVOURITE – The fact that this was Deborah Davis’s first script is an achievement in itself though I wouldn’t mind a Green Book win either.

IGNORED?EIGHTH GRADE – A delightful script that was sadly overlooked though Bo Burnham did at least win this category at the Writer’s Guild Awards.


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

THE BALLAD OF BUSTER SCRUGGS, Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
BLACKKKLANSMAN, Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee
CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?, Nicole Holofcener & Jeff Whitty
IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK, Barry Jenkins
A STAR IS BORN, Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters

WILL WIN?BLACKKKLANSMAN – This feels like’s the Academy’s best chance to finally recognise Spike Lee though there could yet be an upset involving either Can You Ever Forgive Me? or A Star is Born.

SHOULD WIN?BLACKKKLANSMAN – Many believe Spike is overdue so a win here seems likely to earn him a standing ovation.

IGNORED?THE DEATH OF STALIN – The political satire was crisply written by Armando Iannucci and co. yet failed to make the cut.


BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

BLACK PANTHER
THE FAVOURITE
FIRST MAN
MARY POPPINS RETURNS
ROMA

WILL WIN?THE FAVOURITE

SHOULD WIN?THE FAVOURITE

IGNORED?FANTASTIC BEASTS: THE CRIMES OF GRINDELWALD


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

COLD WAR
THE FAVOURITE
NEVER LOOK AWAY
ROMA
A STAR IS BORN

WILL WIN?ROMA

SHOULD WIN?ROMA

IGNORED?FIRST MAN


BEST COSTUME DESIGN

THE BALLAD OF BUSTER SCRUGGS
BLACK PANTHER
THE FAVOURITE
MARY POPPINS RETURNS
MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS

WILL WIN?THE FAVOURITE

SHOULD WIN?THE FAVOURITE

IGNORED?BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY


BEST MAKE-UP AND HAIR

BORDER
MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS
VICE

WILL WIN?VICE

SHOULD WIN?VICE

IGNORED?STAN & OLLIE


BEST EDITING

BLACKKKLANSMAN
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
THE FAVOURITE
GREEN BOOK
VICE

WILL WIN?VICE

SHOULD WIN?BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY

IGNORED?ROMA


BEST SOUND MIXING

BLACK PANTHER
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
FIRST MAN
ROMA
A STAR IS BORN

WILL WIN?BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY

SHOULD WIN?BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY

IGNORED?MARY POPPINS RETURNS


BEST SOUND EDITING

BLACK PANTHER
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
FIRST MAN
A QUIET PLACE
ROMA

WILL WIN?BLACK PANTHER

SHOULD WIN?BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY

IGNORED?MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – FALLOUT


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR
CHRISTOPHER ROBIN
FIRST MAN
READY PLAYER ONE
SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY

WILL WIN?AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR

SHOULD WIN?READY PLAYER ONE

IGNORED?ANT-MAN AND THE WASP


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Terence Blanchard, BLACKKKLANSMAN
Nicholas Britell, IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
Alexandre Desplat, ISLE OF DOGS
Ludwig Goransson, BLACK PANTHER
Marc Shaiman, MARY POPPINS RETURNS

WILL WIN?IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK

SHOULD WIN?MARY POPPINS RETURNS

IGNORED?FIRST MAN


BEST ORIGINAL SONG

THE BALLAD OF BUSTER SCRUGGS, “When a Cowboy Trades his Spurs for Wings”
BLACK PANTHER, “All the Stars”
MARY POPPINS RETURNS, “The Place Where Lost Things Go”
RBG, “I’ll Fight”
A STAR IS BORN, “Shallow”

WILL WIN?A STAR IS BORN (“Shallow”)

SHOULD WIN?A STAR IS BORN (“Shallow”)

IGNORED? MARY POPPINS RETURNS (“Trip a Little Light Fantastic”)


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

INCREDIBLES 2
ISLE OF DOGS
MIRAI
RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET
SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE

WILL WIN?SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE – The Sony animation has been one of the surprise success stories of this awards season and has eased its way to key wins at the Golden Globes and BAFTAs.

SHOULD WIN?ISLE OF DOGS – Wes Anderson’s delightful film didn’t perform as well as expected though it’s still one of his best films.

IGNORED?EARLY MAN – Aardman were unable to deliver this time round with some audiences and critics underwhelmed by the film’s football storyline.

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